Week 12 - Miami and stuff

Before I start, I wanted to point out that several of the people I've called out in that new thing I've been doing have played really well lately. In fact the whole team is performing great. But since I spoke negatively about a few guys, I want to praise them when they do well. Jeron Gouveia-Winslow had another huge, game changing play. He was the one that forced the Ezly fumble on the goal line last week against UNC. Great play GW! My boy! Also, Hosely, Drager, the defense as a whole, Beamer, and even Stinespring have done well down the stretch after I called them out earlier for their plays or decisions. See it's not all negativity!

I’m terribly unmotivated to do this blog this week. We should have the Coastal wrapped up after beating UNC last week. I mean all we have to do is beat UVA, and everyone but Miami has done that this year. So that got me thinking, are the players in a similar situation? They know they just have to beat a weak UVA team, so do they overlook Miami and get rocked? Sure it’s different situations, but I like being able to relate athletes to myself. I mean, I’m a little athletic…

Anyway, to show my lack of motivation, here’s my synopsis: Miami’s offensive and defensive lines are better than ours. They’ll probably win the battles up front making this a tough game to win. On the offensive line they are all huge and great blockers. Their two tackles, Orlando Franklin and Seantrel Henderson, are beasts. Franklin is a senior and the leader on their line, and Henderson is a true freshman that came over from USC after they got in trouble. Henderson was the #1 recruit in the nation last year. They have used their size and strength up front to run all over people since Jacory Harris went down. Berry, Miller, and James have been running all over people the last few weeks. And am I the only person that’s upset that Jacory Harris is out against us? He’s an interception machine! Oh well…

On the other side of the ball, the defensive line is another tough matchup. End, Allen Bailey, leads a group that gets to the QB often. They’re 7th in the country in sacks. We could see a different game plan this week after GT and UNC only rushed 3 or 4 and dropped everyone else into zone against us. Their secondary has been great too. They’re 3rd in the country in pass defense and have only allowed 6 passing TDs.

But history is a bit on our side. In the 3 years under Randy Shannon, Miami hasn’t lived up to the hype in games against VT. Sure they beat us last time we went down to Miami, but they only scored 16 points in the game. In the last three years, they’ve scored 14, 16, and 7 (last year in the pouring rain). So if Bud still has their number, I’m confident our offense can score at least 21 points. We have too many weapons on offense to score any less. So yeah, that’s all I’ve got this week. Maybe a loss will motivate me to do a better write-up for the season finale. Or maybe the Hokie players are nothing like me… Even though Josh Morgan once told me that I had good hands and that I should come out for the team when he threw the football around with us at our University Terrace apartment. This was before the girl he was dating in one of the apartments above us threw him out (and all of his clothes and stuff out the window and into the lawn) and moved on to Deron Washington. But before I start to ramble...

Hey, Bud Foster, it seems like people have been running all over us this season. Keep up your complete dominance against Miami's offense and come up with a game plan that plugs all the holes for opposing running backs. Too often this season it seems like all the linemen and linebackers are getting blocked on design runs and the first people to the ball carrier are coming from the secondary.

Prediction: 24-17 Hokies. For whatever reason… It’ll be a tough day for a rushing offense and defense I imagine, but Tyrod will do enough to carry us back to the ACC Championship game. And since this post lacked all sorts of effort and humor, I’ll leave you with this motivational poster inspired by Miami’s loss to us 3 years ago:

Week 11 - Adversity

Happy Veterans Day! I’d like to take a moment to thank all of those that are serving and have served. Keep our troops in mind this weekend.

So that Georgia Tech game was pretty stressful huh? It didn’t help matters to be there in the freezing cold with an angry GT alum girlfriend either… She was a good sport about all of it, but she was still cold, sick, and angry. But that said, it was a fun weekend in Blacksburg, and I miss it so much. How good did GT look though? I thought it was their best game of the season on both sides of the ball. Al Groh and the defense surprised me (and the Hokies) with how well they played and game planned. And since GT got up early, they were able to run the ball and not throw it which as I pointed out last week was the key to their success. Luckily they did throw it a few times including two interceptions in the red zone. And the last interception was the one that sealed the deal. Probably a game we shouldn’t have won, but hey, we did!

So now we’re moving on to a UNC team that is really hitting their stride now even though they have had so much off the field (and even on the field) issues this season. They have already had 31 players miss at least 1 game this season due to NCAA violations or injuries. With everything added up, they will lose an estimated 89 starts from players. Now they are faced with the question of whether or not to pull Ryan Houston’s redshirt since they really don’t have a running back left in the backfield. At least we decided to not redshirt David Wilson before the opener which is looking more and more like a great decision due to the two kick returns in huge wins (against NCST and GT) and Ryan William’s injury. So how has UNC played so well this season? Well the starters’ backups were also great recruits and are playing up to their hype. It’s probably easy to recruit if you pay players, give them gifts of housing, travel, entertainment, and jewelry, write essays for them, not make them go to class, make them contacts with agents, and allow them to partake in cannibalism. Alright fine, one of those is made up, but you have to figure out which one on your own. And apparently this has gone on for a while. I just found out today that former UNC players, Hakeem Nicks, Mahlon Carey, and Omar Brown, also received gifts while at Chapel Hill.

And before I get into this any further, just know that I don’t think this is a problem specific to UNC. Look what’s going on with Cam Newton and about half of the SEC and USC, and throughout the college athletic landscape. I mean would you be surprised if something came out like this about Michael Vick? I’m not saying he got paid and VT at all, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to learn that he did. Obviously this is going to happen when there is so much money in the college sports system as a whole and those that are providing the entertainment are only paid in tuition. Most of these players come from poorer families and could probably use a little extra cash for school. So you can’t help but feel a little sympathy for the athletes. But then there’s Marvin Austin… How can you be so dumb to broadcast over facebook and twitter that you’re partying and traveling with agents and then continue to hurt your cause in an ongoing NCAA investigation by other comments you make? I mean all these players on UNC decided to come back to be one of the best defenses ever in college football. But more than half of them were taking money and gifts from agents. Just go pro! This whole thing hurt all of their draft statuses (or is it stati?).

But what bothers me the most about everything that went on and is still going on is how Butch Davis is being canonized over how “UNC is overcoming adversity.” Are you kidding me! You have to be crazy to think that Butch Davis didn’t know about any of this. The tutor that wrote all the papers for all these players and even Butch Davis’ son is the Davis family’s nanny! So when Butch has all these interviews about how proud he is of these players for overcoming all this adversity and how these guys are such great guys, he couldn’t come off as more of a hypocrite. He knew all of this was going on! Coaches always know! Why do you think Pete Carroll snuck off to the Seahawks right before the shit hit the fan at USC? And overcoming adversity? Really? I mean yes, I guess it is adversity, but it’s self inflicted adversity! It would be like if someone wanted be the first one legged person to swim the Bering Strait, but they cut off their own leg to do it. It’s not like Mississippi State playing through the loss of Nick Bell after his fight with cancer, or Rutgers playing for Eric LeGrand after he was paralyzed from the neck down from making a tackle, or Notre Dame playing for the student that died in the tower collapse taping a practice (although we still may learn that the coaching staff is to blame), or even Michigan State rallying after their head coaches heart attack scare, or other real tragedies other football teams are facing. UNC only has themselves to blame! If I have to hear another interview of Butch Davis just gushing about how great his players are, how big their hearts are, and how they have overcome so much together, I’m going to lose it. Sure I feel bad for the UNC players that did it right and got dragged down by the players that were only looking out for themselves, but Butch Davis and several of the athletes on UNC are to blame. And in all honesty, Butch Davis should be fired over this. He actually should have already have fired…



Ugh, now to some real football stuff… T.J. Yates is having a great year all things considered. He’s lead UNC to throw for the 33nd most passing yards in the country and is the most improved player in the ACC. And on offense he’s doing mostly alone with all sorts of running backs, receivers, and even his #1 target, TE, Zach Pianalto. He does still have a lot of weapons at WR, but I don’t see how UNC can come out and run the ball. If we can make them totally one dimensional, I don’t see how they can beat us. Our pass defense is too good to let Yates and Co. go up and down the field. And on defense, UNC is still good. They’ve gotten most of their players back like Quan Sturdivant and others, and the people that filled in for them played great. Also, I think Bruce Carter is a beast! We might have some trouble running on them, but their secondary is depleted by injuries. So I expect Tyrod to have a big day throwing.

It’s not like UNC is the only one facing adversity through injuries! Defensive End and regular blog mention, Chris Drager is out due to a hit he took in the Georgia Tech game. It hasn’t shown up too much on the stat sheet, but I think Drager has had a really good 2nd half of the season. He’s been hurrying the QB and knocking down passes a good amount recently. That said, I’m not too worried with JR Collins and James Gayle stepping in for him. They’re not as good in run defense, but both are probably better pass rushers, and as I said, UNC will be throwing a lot against us. But the biggest hit to the Hokies is the loss of both return men! David Wilson, fresh off the game winning kickoff return against GT, is out at least 1 week with mono. Dyrell Roberts is out for the rest of the year with compartment syndrome. This causes painful swelling (in Roberts’ case in his thigh) which caused him to have emergency surgery the night after the GT game. This leads to my weekly H_RMBSYCGAAMACBLDE(AMTYFAMBT)!

Hey, Ryan Williams and Tony Gregory, step up in the kick returns and more importantly hold on to the ball! We have adversity to overcome!

Prediction: We will stare adversity in the face and then stomp on it. 27-17 VT. Why? Because it’s almost lunch time… I mean, we’ve played well against the pass all year and this should be no different. Also, our offense should do better than they did against UNC last year. Tyrod Taylor will be the player of the game, and year…

Week 10 - Groh Blows

Oh where to start? I guess I’ll just throw this out there now; I think there are only 2 ways this game can go: a shootout or a VT blowout. That’s really all I can see happening. Both teams will outmatch their opposing defenses, but will GT have another multi-turnover, penalty filled game where they can’t convert 3rd downs and basically stop themselves on offense? They have already done this 4 times this year. The 4 games: a 28-25 loss to Kansas because they can’t stop Kansas’ passing attack and killed themselves with penalties and 3rd down conversions (4 of 13), a 45-28 loss to NCST because they can’t stop Russell Wilson and have a punt blocked and an additional 2 turnovers, a 24-20 win against Wake where they win despite penalties and a -2 turnover deficit, and a 27-13 loss to Clemson where Ellington and company ran all over their defense, they converted only 6/16 3rd downs, and only completed 6/19 passes.

So why are they having so much more trouble this year compared to the previous two? Well most people will point to the fact that they lost 4 of their probably best 5 players from last year’s team to the NFL draft. And I agree that this is a large part of the problem. Derrick Morgan Burnett were great on defense and when they left the skill level did have a significant drop. Allen and Dwyer were pretty much interchangeable, so Dwyer wasn’t a huge loss. But the biggest loss of all was Demaryius Thomas. There is a reason Thomas was picked in the first round of the NFL draft. His size, speed, and skill made it where he could stretch the field, win jump balls, and catch anything near him. The current GT team does not have this ability as seen by Thomas’ 1152 yards last season compared to 678 yards total with a team high of 164 yards from Stephen Hill with only 4 games to go. So obviously the loss of Thomas was a huge loss.

I say that’s only half of the problem. As I said earlier GT is killing themselves on offense in their losses through timely penalties and turnovers. But the biggest reason they’ve been losing is the 3rd down conversions. In their 3 losses, GT is 4 of 13, 4 of 14, and 6 of 16 for a total of 14 of 43 (32.6%). For the season they are converting on 3rd down 38.4% of the time which ranks 70th in the country. Last season, they converted an astonishing 52.4% on 3rd downs, which ranked 2nd in the country. Thomas is part of the reason for the drop off considering how many drops I’ve seen for GT, but the real root cause in my opinion is the play calling. More often than not last season, GT would run on 1st and 2nd to get a 3rd and short. This would give Paul Johnson the luxury of basically 2 shots using the triple option to pick up the short yardage since he always goes for it on 4th down. Meaning this opened up the passing game since it isn’t an obvious passing situation (run or pass can get you the first down) and there is little to lose (if you’re confident your offense can pick up a few yards on 4th, and Paul Johnson has never seemed like he has lacked confidence). But in the games I’ve seen GT play this year, the 3 losses + the UNC game, GT will often throw on 1st or 2nd down. I don’t know if you’ve checked but Nesbitt is only completing 38.2% of his passes and a lot of those passes are screen passes. I mean Nesbitt is rarely mistaken for an accurate passer. Even last season with one of the top 2 or 3 receivers in the country, he only completed 46% of his passes (granted he took more downfield shots). But now you don’t even have Thomas, so why would you throw the ball just as often? Nesbitt is currently on pace for 700 less yards with only 9 few attempts. So as a VT fan, I’m hoping Nesbitt attempts 20 or more passes this Thursday…

But let’s move on to what will be my favorite part of this blog, my boy, Al Groh! This is where we will start the Groh Blows.



Al Groh has been in the defensive scheming game for 40 years, and is credited for brining the 3-4 defense to the college game. This is complete bullshit since the defense has been around since the 40s or probably even earlier, but yeah basically it was popular in 80s and early 90s in the NFL and he brought it with him to UVA. So the defensive mastermind converted and oversaw UVA’s defense in 2001. Since that time he lead the Cavaliers to a 59-53 record, a Gator Bowl, a Music City Bowl, a MPC Computers Bowl, and 2 Continental Tire Bowls. He alienated the Tidewater area and allowed VT to be the sole recruiter of the area. He sparked VT websites such as www.dontfirealgroh.com. Oh, and he has had a single win against VT. I know my readers, they want stats! Well, here’s some good stuff since 2004 about Al Groh defenses (I couldn’t, aka didn’t try very hard, to find anything older than that). All of these wonderful stats are brought to you by well me, but from cfbstats.com.

From 2004-2009, Al Groh’s total defense at UVA has ranked 18th, 61st, 17th, 23rd, 42nd, and 52nd. This is pretty good, right? Three times in the top 25, all 6 years in the top half(ish). So I can see how this would be an improvement for GT. Wait, how did GT do in that same time? They finished 12th, 22nd, 27th, 20th, 25th, and 53rd from 04-09. So they replaced their defensive coordinator from 2009 that gave up an average of 24.8 points and 360.3 yards per game, with the mastermind of the defense that gave up 26.3 points and 358.4 yards per game. Oh and he’ll be switching to the 3-4 which GT hasn’t recruited the personnel for, and they haven’t played during their college careers. So how’s Al doing this season? Teams are averaging 23.6 points and 354.3 yards per game against GT. And GT has yet to play VT, Miami, and Georgia which are in the top 4 of offenses they will play this year. And for the complete demoralization of possibly the 2 GT people that might read this, VT, under Bud Foster, has ranked 4th, 1st, 1st, 4th, 7th, and 12th in that time.

So how have the Hokies specifically done against Al Groh since 2004? Well they are 6-0 and have averaged just over 28 points per game. And this is with VT offenses that ranked 66th, 57th, 99th, 100th, 103rd, and 49th in total offense. And now we actually have an offense! To my surprise we are ranked 12th in the country right now in scoring offense and 32nd in total offense. So in summary, I think our offense will be tough to stop.

The question is how does our defense play against the triple option. Well, I don’t really know. GT under Paul Johnson has been fairly good against us in the past and completely controlled the clock last year. We aren’t really strong at stopping the run right now as we rank 77th in the country in average yards per rush against us at 4.4. We have already given up 44 rushes longer than 10 yards and 11 rushes over 20 and we haven’t played a real rushing attack yet. Our linebackers haven’t really don’t a great job recognizing the run or wrapping up the defender. Well we’ve missed a lot of tackles in general which is the recipe for disaster against GT. Plus, Bruce Taylor might still be suffering from his ankle injury by Thursday meaning Redshirt Freshman Jack Tyler will get significant playing time. It’s not like Taylor has our most tackles, tackles for a loss, QB hurries, and 3rd most sacks…

This brings me to this week’s installment of H_RMBSYCGAAMACBLDE(AMTYFAMBT)!

Hey Everyone on Defense, everyone needs to learn to wrap some people up! I’m tired of this missed tackle garbage, and GT is the type of team you really need to tackle.

But there is some good news. Teams have historically done well against Paul Johnson’s triple option when they have more than a week to prepare. Bud Foster did go visit Iowa over the summer to talk with them how they stopped the triple option. Also, all the things I’ve already mentioned about Groh and their play calling. Oh and we’re 28th in the league in opponent 3rd down conversion.

Prediction: GT always plays us tough, so I leaning that this turns into a shoot out. I have no idea how the rain and 36 degree temperature affects each team, but I feel like we’re a pretty good bad weather team. So how’s it all play out? We put up 42 on Al Groh’s defense last year which had better personnel than this year’s GT team has, but GT will control the ball much better than UVA did last season. So I say VT wins this one 34-24. But who knows with these two teams…

Week 9 - Basketball Preview!

To make up for the fact that I didn’t post anything last week, I’ve decided to treat you all this off-week with a basketball preview! How fitting is that in an off-week after destroying Duke? Full disclosure, I was going to do this last week anyway and take this week off, but due to training for work and laziness at home, it didn’t happen. But now we’re here, let’s get this started. I’ll break it down by projected starters, main contributors off the bench, schedule and outlook, and finally recruiting. I promise I'll talk football next week. Well, if I get around to it... Anyway, without further ado:


Projected Starters:


Malcolm Delaney, PG – Delaney is the heart and soul of our team this year, and the weight is on his shoulders to get us over the hump and into the tournament. Last year he was the ACC’s leading scorer averaging 20.2 ppg. He also averaged 3.7 rpg, 4.5 apg, and 1.2 steals per game. More than anything though, he is a master at driving and getting to the free throw line where he was 3rd in the ACC in free throw percentage. He was unanimously voted 1st team All-ACC (first ever at VT, yeah I know we’ve only been in the ACC 6 years) and is going into this season on the John Wooden Award Preseason Watchlist for best player in the country. All eyes are on Delaney this year as we can only go as far as he takes us.


Dorenzo Hudson, SG – Hudson was the most improved player on the team last season and maybe even in the ACC. He increased his offensive output from 4.6 to 15.2 (10th best in the ACC) last season and took over games when Delaney was injured. He has always been a lock down defender, but now he has become a great scorer by beating people on the dribble and slashing to the basket. And as a sign for things to come, Hudson averaged 20.2 ppg in post-season play last year.


Terell Bell, SF – Bell is the best defender on the team with his 6’6 frame and longer wingspan. He rebounds well for his position pulling down 6.1 rpg and had the 2nd most blocks on the team. He also greatly improved his shooting last season and had the best 3pt percentage on the team at 0.361. This enables the Hokies to spread the floor and give Delaney, Hudson, and Allen room to drive.


Jeff Allen, PF – Allen has always been up and down for the Hokies, but when he’s up, he’s really hard to stop. He’s 6’7, 230 but has great feet quickness and the hands of a guard. This makes him a matchup problem with anyone. Offensively he can beat bigger men to the rim on the dribble, and defensively he is all over the place. He is the active leader in the ACC in rebounds, steals, and blocked shots! The problem with Allen has always been foul trouble though, and this could be an especially big problem this year with our very limited front court…


Victor Davila, PF – Davila was a highly rated recruit, but has yet to live up to the hype. He is the Hokies most gifted offensive player in the front court with a lethal hook shot, but goes cold for several weeks at a time. And his defense needs more work than his offense. He needs to be more physical, especially crashing the boards. He was 3rd on the team in blocks, but overall needs to pick it up defensively.


Bench:


Erik Green, PG – Delaney and Hudson played more minutes than just about anyone in the country last year, and that’s mostly because Green and Boggs left a bit to be desired while trying to give them a rest. Green has the talent and has had a great offseason, so there is a good chance we see more of him this year. Last year, his shot was off and he was too timid, but he’s put in the work on the court and in the weight this offseason and is coming back bigger and more confident.
Ben Boggs, G – Boggs is undersized and not a true point guard. He can knock down and open 3, but rarely creates for himself or teammates. His primary role will be to just give the starters a rest.


Cadarian Raines, PF – Oh my… In my opinion, Raines is the key to our season this year. As I hinted earlier, we really have no depth in the front court this season. Allen, Davilla, and Raines are it. Raines didn’t play too many minutes last season because of a foot injury, but his size is needed this season. The good news is that Raines might be more of a complimentary player to Allen with how physicality. He plays bigger than he is, which is already 6’9, he’s a great rebounder and blocker, and he is an energy guy that will go all out all the time. But he did just have his 2nd foot surgery in just over a year this summer and is still hobbling around…


Manny Atkins, G/F – Much like Bell, Atkins is a great defender with a long wingspan. He didn’t play too much last season, but did show signs of improvement specifically in his ball handling. Expect Atkins, Eddie, and Bell to get some major minutes at PF if Allen gets in foul trouble, Raines has health issues, or Davila has a quiet game. Yeah, basically expect the Hokies to play small ball a lot this season like when we had a 140 lb Deron playing as a "power" forward…


Still. he was my favorite power forward...


Jarell Eddie, SF – I’m so giddy about our recruiting the last two seasons. Eddie might be the best recruit VT has ever landed, well until the next class coming in next year! In my biased opinion, Eddie has a chance at the ACC Freshman of the Year. At 6’7, 210 he has the size and strength to play either forward position and rebounds the position well. He also can hit open 3’s, has decent rang on his jumper, and is great at driving to the basket and going up strong or drawing contact. He will be a matchup problem for nearly anyone he faces. I expect he’ll make an instant impact and play a lot of minutes for us this season.


Tyrone Garland, G – Garland is another super freshman coming in. He’s a little rawer than Eddie, but like Delaney he’s good at slashing to the basket. He’s not a true PG or SG as he mostly creates for himself and lacks a consistent outside shot, but he has the skills that should get him on the court this season and set him up for a good career at Tech.


IR:


JT Thompson, F – Thompson was a PF trapped in a SF’s body. But he played much bigger than his 6’6 frame. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in a pick-up game and is out for the season. We could have really used him off the bench at PF. He was 4th on the team in points last season and 3rd in rebounds.


Allen Chaney, PF – Poor Chaney was supposed to make an instant impact after transferring from Florida 2 years ago, but since then he’s had rotten luck. Chaney is an athletic 6’9 forward that is a great rebounder and has good perimeter skills for the position. He missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury and resulting surgery, now he’s having a much scarier problem. He fainted in practice in April and had to receive mouth-to-mouth resuscitation. He was diagnosed with dehydration and cleared for light shooting drills soon after. But he continued getting dizzy and having fainting spells in light workouts unless he chugged 4 Red Bulls beforehand (from his own experience). Because of this they decided to look at his heart where they learned that he had vital inflammation of the heart. The virus requires 6-18 months to run its course while resting and having little to no physical exertion. So odds are, he’ll miss the entire season. Even if his heart recovers in time, he’ll be out of basketball shape to make any impact. The one bright spot is that NBA vet, Juwan Howard, also suffered from this virus and called Chaney to encourage him. But you can’t help but feeling terrible for this kid.


Outlook:


On that uplifting note let’s get into the Hokies outlook for this season… Last season we finished 25-9 overall and 10-6 in the ACC (tied for 3rd). And again we were on the outside looking in during March Madness. Since VT joined the ACC in 2004, only 4 times has a team gone .500 or better in ACC play and not made the tournament. Three of those times were VT... But this season there are no excuses. We are ranked #23 preseason. We were voted to finish 2nd in the ACC by the ACC. And we have one of the best players in the country. Also, our strength of schedule is way up this year (which was important last season, but not as important a few seasons before that…).


As stated there is a glaring weakness in the front court. We only have 3 true front court players in Allen, Davila, and Raines. And only one of those has truly proven himself. Davila or Raines will really need to step up in order for the Hokies to live up to the hype. And not only that, but all three have to stay out of foul trouble and stay healthy (which is not exactly any of their strong points).


But for where we lack front court size and depth, we more than make up for in back court speed and athleticism. There will be few teams that will be able to defend Delaney, Hudson, and Eddie. Plus, Hudson, Bell, Atkins, and Eddie will be tough defensive matchups for anyone. The back court should be an advantage for us in every game aside from possibly Duke and Kansas St.

Looking at the schedule there are some tough tests. I guess Greenberg is making sure we’re not in the same position on the bubble this season as last due to strength of schedule. The challenges start on the road against Kansas State on Nov 16. For Kansas State, Jacob Pullen is one of the best guards in the nation at putting the ball in the basket, plus you pair him with a front court consisting of Jamar Samuels, Curtis Kelley, and FIU transfer, Freddy Asprilla, and Kansas State is tough to defend. Then the Hokies will travel to Anaheim for the 76 Classic over Thanksgiving weekend to play Cal State Northridge, then DePaul or Oklahoma State if they win. If they win the first two games, they’ll probably play Murray State in the finals. And Murray State’s senior guard duo of B.J. Jenkins Isacc Miles is one of the best in the country. The Hokies will also travel to the Bahamas to play in the Battle at Atlantis against Mississippi State on Dec 18. Mississippi State’s Renardo Sidney, Ravern Johnson, and Dee Bost (if he’s eligible) present real matchup problems for an undersized Hokies team. Then there is all of the ACC to contend with. Duke is loaded in the back court with Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, and Andre Dawkins. I’m not terribly worried about the Plumlee filled back court, but their depth at the guard position is just scary. Other tough matchups include big men Jordan Williams from Maryland and Tracy Smith at NCST along with a great group of freshmen. Plus, there’s no telling how good Harrison Barnes is going to be for UNC. That said, it is a down year in the ACC, so VT should be able to win 10 or more.


I predict tough losses to KSU, someone in the 76 Classic (OKST or Murray St probably), possibly Mississippi State, then a few losses scattered throughout the ACC. At the end of the year, I expect the Hokies to be around 23-6 going into the ACC tournament (as a #2 or 3 seed). But it’s going to be tough with our lack of depth in the front court.


Recruiting:


I’m already over 2000 words going into this part, so I’ll try and wrap this section up in as few words as I can, but I’m just so excited about how well Greenberg and company have recruited the last two years. I’ve already told you about Jarell Eddie and Tyrone Garland from last year’s class and how excited I am about them both (especially Eddie). Well check out next year’s class, which is still in the works:


Dorian Finney-Smith, SF – According to ESPN, Finney-Smith is the 4th best SF prospect in the country and 15th best overall. He is the best recruit Virginia Tech has ever gotten (an accolade held by Jarell Eddie for about a year). At 6’7 he can play as a shooting guard or either forward position. He can get to the rim off the dribble, can hit open shots, has great vision and can find teammates for easy buckets, and is very effective on the offensive glass. He needs to build some more strength and develop more of a low post game and become a better defensive rebounder, but there are very few holes in his game.


Marquis Rankin, PG – Ranked 21st in the nation at PG, Rankin is a quick, athletic PG that is great in transition and on defense. He also has a high basketball IQ and moves well with or without the ball. He’s had a few injury problems in the past and isn’t much of a shooter, but he’s more of a true PG than Tyrone Garland. If he can stay healthy he could be a major contributor and start for 4 years at Tech.


C.J. Barksdale, PF – Another 6’7 athletic offensive monster. Barksdale is the 15th ranked PF in the country. He can knock down mid range jumpers and attack the basket. Also, he’s a force on the offensive glass. Needs to add strength to hold down the post on defense and needs to work on his technique, but the athleticism and skill set is a matchup problem for any low post defender.


Robert Brown, SG – Brown is a streaky shooter, but has great shooting and passing touch as well as body control. He can also drive to the lane and finish with both hands and has a knack for drawing fouls. He is also an athletic and long armed defender and was ranked 39th in the country and SG.


And who’s considering Tech that would put this class over the edge?


Adjehi Baru, C – Baru is the 5th ranked C on ESPN’s rankings and #47 overall. Baru is from the Ivory Coast but moved to Virginia in high school. He’s a ferocious defender that brings a lot of energy on the court. He’s a great rebounder and help side shot blocker. He’s also coordinated for his size making him a good passer and offensive player. Like most kids coming up he needs to add strength to play in the low post at the college level, but he could make an immediate impact.


It would be a phenomenal pull to add Baru to this class which already ranks 10th in the nation (higher than we have been ranked in football recruiting since Vick). I mean when was the last time we’ve had this much to be excited about enter the season? Not since ’94-’95 coming off a NIT championship and returning all of our starters. Except no one cared about basketball then. But now we have become a basketball school thanks to JMU. Also, I've read that the four of these guys are already calling each other and talking about how they plan on coming to VT to win a national title. That's the kind of stuff I want to read about my recruiting class!



It’ll be a great season, and I’m very excited about it. You know if Allen can stay out of foul trouble and Raines can stay healthy. If not, I’ve read a rumor that a couple football players might come out for the team in a low post enforcer style like Jeff King. The names I’m hearing: Marcus Davis and Prince Parker. But let’s hope it doesn’t come down to that!



Here’s to your health!

Week 7 - It Worked!

Holy crap! It worked. My latest inclusion of H_RMBSYCGAAMACBLDE(AMTYFAMBT) actually worked. Based on the fact that Darren Evans was motivated by reading fans opinions, I decided to call out Jeron Hosley for his punt returning and guess what? He returned 3 punts for 98 yards and a TD! He upped his average yards per return for the year from 0.8 to 12.75 in a single game! Jeron, since you obviously read my blog, firstly, you’re welcome for the inspiration, secondly, I’m sorry giving you a hard time about it, and thirdly, great season so far! Hopefully you can see why I did it, and we can continue to be friends.

In other H_RMBSYCGAAMACBLDE(AMTYFAMBT) news, the other 4 sort of worked I guess. GW got beat on the first drive for the TD, but had a decent game after that finishing with 5 tackles. I’d call him out again, but I’ve already been tough on him all season. Beamer at least sort of fired up the team and we only had a 0-7 deficit to start this game, and then went on a 38-0 run. Stinespring’s offense looked good on downs 1 and 2, but not so much that 3rd one… And Exum had another good game and had no penalties.

So since this sort of worked, we’ll add the 2nd installment to “Hey _____, read my blog so you can get angry and motivated and come back like Darren Evans (and maybe tell your friends about my blog too).”

Hey, Chris Drager, aside from the Boston College game you have been nonexistent. Averaging 1.8 tackles per game, you have less tackles than all three other starting linemen plus your own backup, Fresman JR Collins. You only have 1 tackle for a loss which ties you 10th on the team, behind 5 linemen, 3 linebackers, and a defensive back, and 3 of those are backups. You also only have 2 QB hurries on top of that. Either step up or take a step back on the depth chart!

Now that we’ve got that taken care of, what should we look for against Wake Forest? Well they a running team that would run the ball a lot and for a lot of yards. But they didn’t really run it that well. At 4.5 yards per carry, they are 53rd in the nation. But only 1 team has attempted more rushes than them with a lower yards per carry average. A more telling stat: in their 2 wins against Duke and Presbyterian, they are averaged 6.25 yards per carry with 9 TDs. In their 4 losses against teams that would at least consider playing defense (which surprisingly includes GT! OHHHHH!!!!), they averaged a meager 3.55 yards per carry and only have 6 TDs. And they were even worse throwing the ball. But then out of nowhere Tanner Price comes out and throws 326 yards with 2 TDs and no picks against Navy. This doubled his season total and nearly doubled the team total. This is surprising because Wake had been an option run offense, and they do a rare QB by committee approach. From recent Hokie memory you should know that QBs by committee are usually bad. But Wake has already rotated in 4 QBs!! So to be totally honest, I don’t know what Wake will do on Saturday, and I’m not sure they do either…

So how’s Wake’s defense? Horrible! They’re 102nd in the nation in total defense. In their last 4 games they were crushed 31-0 by FSU, humiliated by Stanford 68-24, and then suffered heart-breaking losses to GT (24-20) and Navy (28-27). Option offenses have put up lots of points and yards on them as have passing attacks. They’re weak in all facets of the defense. Plus I bet they’re pretty demoralized after their latest 4 game stretch. All we need to do is score early and put them in a hole. I’m guessing they won’t be able to dig themselves out. Which is good news since we’ve been so good starting games this year…

Anyway, looks like Ryan Williams is unlikely to make it back in time for the game. But whoever gets the carries against Wake should have a pretty good day. Either Evans or Wilson will get hot. And Tyrod should have another big day.

Prediction: 38-21 Hokies.

Also, if you haven't heard, Greg Nosal, our LG, lost part of his pinky late in the 2nd quarter against CMU when it got stuck between his facemask and another players on a block. He got some pain killers and went right back out to play the whole 3rd quarter! Then once VT got a commanding 31-7 lead he left the game and they reattached the pinky chunk in the 4th. If you're not grossed out yet and want to read more go here:

http://hamptonroads.com/2010/10/va-tech-lineman-loses-part-pinky-keeps-playing

So Greg Nosal, this High 4 goes out to you!

Week 6 - Hey You!

To start, you should know that I probably only watched about 10 minutes of the game against NCST because of a wedding and reception. I listened to another 20 min or so on the radio. But in that time I somehow caught the Tyrod 70 yard run, Hosley’s first interception, the Boykin TD, Hosley’s 3rd interception, and the Evans touchdown to seal the deal. So from what I could tell, the Hokies were awesome! They were pressuring Russell Wilson, forcing turnovers, playing well in the secondary, running all over the NCST defense, and making plays when they needed. When I turned on the little lady's phone at the end of the wedding and we were already down 0-17, I thought we were doomed. Virginia Tech doesn’t come back. But then for the parts of the game I listened to and watching, I just didn’t understand. I mean we were crushing them! Apparently I singlehandedly swung momentum back to our side. And you can’t tell me otherwise because you weren’t there! Well except Theresa, Rob and Sheri…


But enough about how great of a fan I am… Let’s talk about the Hokies. I’ve been waiting for a replay of the game on Comcast Sports Net all week so that I could make points about why we went down early and stormed back. You know, so I could have something backing up what I put down here, but I haven’t seen it yet. So keeping with the theme so far, I’m going to make wild accusations and predictions for the whole blog this week! Why? Because once you start going down this path it’s hard to come back. Just ask CNN.


So I read on Kyle Tucker’s blog that one of the biggest motivating factors in Darren Evans amazing comeback is that he read all sorts of posts online from experts and even VT fans about him about things like Williams and Wilson would be better without him, he’ll be fat and slow after the long time off, that his dreads aren’t as cool as Williams’, and that he isn't athletic enough to do 10 backflips or catch a wild rabbit like Wilson. This is pretty fascinating to me, but it really shouldn’t be since I’d probably do the same. So this has inspired me to create a new section of my blog that may end up just running one week before I realize it’s dumb or I simply forget. It’s called “Hey _____, read my blog so you can get angry and motivated and come back like Darren Evans (and maybe tell your friends about my blog too).” Pretty catchy right? We can shorten it to H_RMBSYCGAAMACBLDE(AMTYFAMBT), if you’d like. And since this is the inaugural H_RMBSYCGAAMACBLDE(AMTYFAMBT), I’ll throw in a couple extra!







Hey _____, read my blog so you can get angry and motivated and come back like Darren Evans (and maybe tell your friends about my blog too):


Hey Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, I’ve typed your name so many times about how bad you are in pass coverage that I don’t have to look up how to spell it anymore! I did like your effort against BC... Let’s do that more often!


Hey Bryan Stinespring, what took you so long to figure out how to pass in the red zone? You can’t wait until reporters talk you into changing your play calling all the time!


Hey Frank Beamer, we’ve gotten down 17-0, 10-0, and 17-0 at the beginning of three games so far! That’s coaching! Motivate your players and let’s try starting out a little stronger next time.

Hey Jeron Hosley, we are 116th in the nation in punt returns average at 2.5 per return! We only 15 yards total, and 11 of them came from Danny Coale’s only return! Maybe quit focusing on defense with your most interceptions in the country AND most pass deflections and try and return a few punts. I’m kidding! I’m very impressed with Hosley so far this year, but 5 returns for 4 yards isn’t cutting it! Dyrell Roberts, you just missed the list for your kickoff returns… Where’s your #4 in the nation return average?!?


Hey Antone Exum, maybe turn your head and look up for the ball when it’s coming so you don’t get flagged for so many pass interferences. Kidding again. I heard the calls were questionable at best, but it couldn’t hurt right?


Now that I’ve been thoroughly mean and motivating, I’ll try and focus on some positives. I think our defensive line is continuing to improve. I may be wrong considering the parts of the game I missed, but what I saw and heard was encouraging. The starting 4 have been very good. Also, Hosley moly!! Three interceptions and four pass deflections? Leading both categories in the country (and he missed a game!)? Our secondary is just plain nasty. Speaking of nasty, Bruce Taylor is becoming a beast! Since those early hits out of bounds, he’s been solid. He already has 9.5 tackles for a loss, which is 6th in the country.


On offense, Tyrod continues to play great and keep us in games when we need him too as well as bring us back like on that 70 yard run (one of the most exciting radio calls I’ve ever heard, seemed like he was running all over the field for like 20 seconds!). But now he’s getting some help from the running backs. Evans has been on fire these last few games, and he looked really good against NCST. It was his best game since Maryland of 2008. Also, I’m still impressed with Jarrett “Sausage Fingers” Boykin’s playmaking ability. He’s 7th in the nation at 23.3 yards per reception and already has 4 TDs. And Andre Smith really made some plays against NCST. Been a while since we had a relevant TE (poor Boone had to block all last season). And finally, the play where they motioned Andrew Lanier, our LT, out wide then moved up a receiver to effectively be a lineman, which left Andre Smith as an eligible receiver even though he was in the LT position, that was a very creative and inspired play call. It was such a good play that it made me write a run-on sentence to describe it. So props for that one Stiney.


And the last positive is our schedule the next three weeks. Don’t get me wrong, there are no sure things any more after the JMU debacle. But the schedule is a bit forgiving for now. We have 3 games at home against Central Michigan, Duke, and Wake Forest. Central Michigan is good, and they like to spread the field and throw the ball around (like a poor man’s NCST, Boise St, ECU, ect…). So we’ve seen this before. They lost 11 starters from last season including their all-MAC QB Dan LaFevour. I think they even lost their coach. I expect the Hokies to play them like they did ECU in the 2nd half. So expect a lot of 30 formation and nickel on defense (meaning a lot of Antone Exum and not as much GW). If the Hokies stay focused to start the game, they should cruise in this one. They also should be able to run against CMU.


Prediction: 31-13 Hokies. Darren Evans and David Wilson will probably have a big game. Also, there’s a good chance of another 2 or 3 interception day for our defense.

Week 5 - Rushed Again!

Sorry, this will be another abbreviated post. It’s the end of the fiscal year at work, and I was traveling over the weekend. Then I’m going to Blacksburg for a wedding this weekend. So, my excuse is, I’ve been busy. Therefore the 10 of you that still read this will be the ones that will suffer. So here’s a quick look at what I expect will happen Sat (back on real TV!):


1. Our defensive ends have turned the corner! It was such a huge relief to see how well Friday played against BC against a great lineman. But I was more impressed with Drager’s play. I have never given him any credit, but he really impressed me at BC. And unlike Friday, he’s shown he is a force against the run and pass. Even Gayle came in off the bench and played well! Combined the 3 had 7 tackles for a loss, 4 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. It was an absolutely huge day! And I expect more of the same against NC State. They are a pass first team that spreads you out, so the ends will have a green light all day. They have to watch out for the draw, but I expect Russell Wilson to be pressured non-stop, just like he was last year. See how the title of the blog worked two ways now? Clever aren't I?


2. Even though my boy, Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, had a great game against BC (aside from an early blown coverage), it could be another game where we play predominately nickel packages like we did against ECU. I expect Exum to get his 2nd start and Whitley to move back up to the Whip/Nickel slot. I really like our nickel personnel this year. That said, I’m happy GW had a good game at BC, because I did feel bad for him and how he performed in the first two games. Maybe it’ll give him the confidence boost he needs going forward.


3. Our defense is better than our buddy Al Groh’s. GT couldn’t much pressure on Russel Wilson and their secondary played a soft zone. I expect us to have more success on defense than GT did. We might have more trouble scoring though…


4. Our offense is still underperforming. I still like what Tyrod is doing. I like what David Wilson has done. Coale and Boykin have been good when they have enough time to run their routes. But the offensive line is still struggling. NC State’s defense is nowhere near as good as BC, but we also struggled against JMU… The play calling must be better, because 19 points might not win this game.


5. Ryan Williams might be back this week, but apparently he’s far from full strength. He hasn’t been full speed this week in practice or done full contact. Plus he hasn’t looked that good all season…

6. NCST opponents are 6-10 overall. VT opponents are 11-2 with both losses being to VT.


7. How is Russell Wilson still playing football!??!! Didn’t he get paid good money to play baseball? Same goes to Kyle Parker and that safety from GT (all of which the Rockies drafted last draft somehow).


All things considered, I expect us to win this game. We’re a 5 point favorite, and we killed them last season. We harassed Russell Wilson all day last year. What I saw last week against better offensive linemen has encouraged me to think we can hold NCST to under 20. This should be a favorable matchup. So I think VT wins 27-17. Of course, maybe our offense figures out how to run more screens (which we ran once last week for like 15 yards…), short passes, and effective play actions, and we put up a lot of points.


If I left you wanting more with my weak effort you can find more information about just how bad our red zone offense and play calling is; take a look at Kyle Tucker’s blog the last few articles.


http://hamptonroads.com/blogs/kyle-tucker


The good news is Stinespring has been hearing a ton of pressure from the media (including said Kyle Tucker), and maybe we can expect a little more inspired play-calling. But I’ve fallen for that trap before. Like 4 weeks ago…



In unrelated news, we just got a verbal from Dorian Finney-Smith, a 5 star SF from Portsmouth, VA for the 2011 basketball class. ESPN ranked him as the 15th best overall prospect of the class. We’re currently ranked 10th in recruiting for 2011. That’s 5 spots higher than we ended up in football recruiting for the years we got Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Williams. I told you we were a basketball school! We even have a Deronimo practice facility:

Week 4 - Blitzkrieg BC?

So last week was a hurried blog, and the next two will probably be hurried too. Unfortunately I don’t even know if I’ll be able to even watch the game vs BC because I’ll be home for my grandparents’ 90 birthdays. But that doesn’t mean I can’t tell you what to expect.

But first, where did that 2nd half on Sat come from!?!?! The first half was the same sad story we’ve seen all year: no blocking up front making Tyrod our only offense, poor tackling, and pretty poor coaching. But something happened in the 3rd quarter. We exploded! The offensive line played huge in the 2nd half! Wilson and Evans were getting huge holes to run through. The defense turned into one of the defenses of old and only gave up 83 yards after the half. The line got more pressure than they have all season. And Carmichael, after a pretty weak first half, came out to play! He made some great plays on the ball and showed some seriously athleticism on the run back. I didn’t even yell at Stinespring’s play-calling towards the end of the game. Much…

But playing against is a different team altogether. They are a very different team from our own team. They are pretty much the exact opposite of us. We’ll start with a list of strengths and weaknesses for each team:

BC Strengths/VT Weaknesses

Offensive Line – The best part of the BC offense is their offensive line. For one, they are huge! The biggest line we’ll face all season. The average size of their line: 6-6 313. And two, there is NFL talent all over it. I think it’s pretty safe to say that our offensive line is the weakest link in our offense (not counting play-calling?). This is a HUGE advantage for BC in this game.

Tackling – BC’s linebackers are great wrap-up tacklers. As a true freshman, Luke Kuechly, led the team, and nearly the nation, in tackling. Through 2 games, he’s already recorded 21 tackles. And Mark Herzlich is back from missing all last season to cancer. And he looks like he hasn’t really missed a step. Their linebacking core tackles everything! For Virginia Tech, tackling hasn’t really been a strength this season… Two of our top 3 tacklers are defensive backs. Only Bruce Taylor has shown the ability to make consistent tackles from the line backer position, but even he has missed some key tackles. Plus he has shown a great ability to tackle people out of bounds… Our tackling got better when we went into a nickel package for the ECU game. How does that make sense?

Coaching – Before I get in trouble I don’t think all of VT’s coaching has been a problem this season. But I could argue that something is off with the coaching staff. They haven’t been too successful motivating players (we’re giving up tons of points early in games off of just stupid mistakes), the play calling I might have mentioned a few times in these few blogs, and we always seem to struggle in the role of favorite. BC on the other hand has had coach after coach get promotions to NFL positions, they always exceed expectations and compete in the Atlantic, and they do more with less talent than most teams in the country.

VT Strengths/BC Weaknesses

Skill Position Players – Our best offensive player is Tyrod Taylor, but he is also surrounded by weapons. He has 3 great running backs (I would even argue 4) and a now experienced and athletic receiving core. BC doesn’t even know who they’ll start at QB. Odds are that it will be Shinskie, but he’s been far from impressive. Anyone remember how he did against the Hokies last season? He was 1/12 for 4 yards and 1 interceptions. Montel Harris is their only offensive weapon, but he may only the product of a good o-line.

Athleticism – This may just be an aside of the bullet before. But position by position, Virginia Tech is more athletic and faster all the way down the list.

Big Game Experience – This is Boston College’s first true test after playing Kent St and Weber St. And every game is a test for the Hokies at this point! That experience should hopefully be important in this matchup.

Some other things to note for this game:

David Wilson broke the news that Ryan Williams will be sitting this game out. This probably means a 50/50 time share between Evans and Wilson. And by the way, I was very impressed with Wilson. He looks like the most explosive, fastest, and even hardest to tackle of the 3. And he hasn’t fumbled yet, which is nice… I say feed him the ball!

Like I said above, VT mostly played nickel last game with Exum getting his first ever start at FS. He had a great game there (as did Chris Fuller at corner stepping in for the mysteriously suspended Hosley). That meant Jeron GW didn’t see much action against ECU, and we looked a lot better. I feel bad for continuously calling this kid out, but he needs to improve. BC is a run first team, so we’ll see how the coaches decide to play it with Whitley at WHIP or Jeron there.
Virginia Tech has owned BC the last two meetings, but the defense in those two games was much better…

So this game will answer the age old question: what wins college football games? I’ve been thinking about this for a while now. Really what is the recipe for winning in college? Is it a single standout skill position player that carries a team solely on his back like Michael Vick, a team speed/team athleticism approach that all the Florida teams seem to employ, or is it won in the trenches with dominating lines that make other positions look better like Alabama and Iowa last season? The trend seems to be sliding to winning in the trenches. That’s the main reason we lost to Boise State, although there were tons of reasons. So this will be a true test of this question. Team Speed vs Team Trenches. But you know what the Germans said when the French built up their trenches in the Maginot Line? Blitzkrieg!



Last season’s performance has me leaning for a blowout, but both lines were much better last season. Whoever plays QB for BC will have more time than last year, and the holes will be bigger. Plus, we lost to JMU this season... I think this will be another nail biter for the Hokies, where Harris breaks a few long runs, and Tyrod and Wilson have a few big plays of their own.

Prediction: 31-23 Hokies. I expect a lot of Tyrod scrambling, Wilson big runs, and field goals in general. Probably another game where we’re behind at halftime. And Doug Flutie better not be covering the game again! Or dropping in for a half hour conversation! At least Matt Ryan has a game this week so we don’t have to suffer through that again…

Week 3 - I've got nothing...

So I tried starting several different versions of a blog this week, but I just can't get into it... And you should understand why! But to prove that I did indeed think about it, here's a taste of some of my ideas:

Idea 1: Maybe We're the Other Team in Football Movies

So far we've been the big bad favorite in two games to scrappy underdogs/Cinderella types. Twenty years from now can't you see a movie about how Boise State overcame adversity to win the national championship beating the big boys clubs and facing adversity the whole way through? What about JMU? Coming off a dissappointing season, they pull a huge upset on the team that wouldn't even consider any of the Dukes for a scholarship. Then they coast all the way to the FCS Championship beating everyone and becoming men.

So what is typical of the "other team" in these type of underdog football movies? 1) They're the favorites because they have bigger and better athletes. 2) They're dirty. 3) They can't tackle. 4) Their defense is considered one of the best the good guys have seen in the big scenes leading up to the game, but turns out it's pretty bad.

Which of these do we not meet? I mean I could even give out awards named after other football movie bad guys such as the Warden Hazen award for dirtiest play to DJ Coles for running into the punter, then getting TWO personal fouls on the SAME PLAY!


bleacherreport

And if you’re unaware, Warden Hazen was the warden in The Longest Yard and led the team of guards to one of the dirtiest games in any sports movie since the Nazis in Victory. I came up with a few others, but like I said I’m unmotivated this week.

Idea 2: We’re a Basketball School now!

So this is the first time I can remember, and I don’t care to look it up, that the basketball team could end up higher than the football team in rankings. So that makes us a baskeball school right? Move over Duke and your 1-1 football record, just mocking us with your multi-school athletes! We’re coming in basketball with all of our starters, and 90% of our scoring returning. Plus, SF Jarrell Eddie is getting talk of possibly being the Freshman of the Year in the ACC. He’s a scoring machine and can knock down open 3’s (which is something we lacked last season). I’d go on to say how our recruiting has been great the last 2 years, and how Florida transfer, Allan Chaney, will help us inside. But again, I’ve already written more than I planned this week.

Oh and in a multiple sport, kick you while your down, type deal: J.T. Thompson was injured in a pickup game and is out for the season. Yep…

Idea 3: I’m a Better Fan Now

The loss to JMU put my fanship in perspective and revealed that I shouldn’t put so much thought and energy into college football and sports in general. I’ll be a more relaxed and better fan now.

Yeah right…

Week 2 - Risk Management

To avoid ranting and complaining about things like questionable calls and non-calls on Boise’s winning drive probably costing us up to 50 yards, I’ve decided to get technical this week. I'm going to be all professional. Here is my technical report of lessons learned and potential mitigations using the risk waterfall.

A football team is similar to a system. One could argue that it is a system of systems. Therefore I will treat the problem as seen vs Boise State as a systems engineering problem. A system is only a great as its weakest part. Therefore I have broken down the Virginia Tech Football System as a whole to find the weakest parts. From these parts I have pulled lessons learned and have provided mitigations in the conclusion of this report to raise the performance of the system as a whole.


Lessons Learned

1. The D-Line is weak. The stats listed below might not do this point justice. Watching the game you could just tell the Hokies were getting pushed around up front. A partial list of defensive stats to prove this point is listed below:

• Only Steven Friday got to the QB, recording our single sack.
• Including that sack, the Hokies recorded just 3 tackles for a loss (Friday, Graves , and Carmichael).
• The D-Line combined for just 10 tackles (6 solo, 4 assisted).
• The D-Line only hurried Kellen Moore twice.
• The Broncos averaged 7 yards per carry.

2. Last season’s best run blockers graduated. With the graduation of Sergio Render and Ed Wang, our rushing attack has taken a step backwards. A partial list of historic and current stats to prove this point is listed below:

• Ryan Williams rushed 21 times for 44 yards (2.1 per carry) and never had an opportunity to get in the open field.
• The Hokies combined for 44 rushes for 128 yards (2.9 per carry).
• 73 of those 128 yards came from Tyrod Taylor scrambling for his life.
• Where the Hokies had 10 tackles total from its D-Line, the Broncos had 11 tackles for a loss (3 sacks).
• Last season we never got held to less than 90 rushing yards from running backs (Alabama held the Hokeis to 90 but on just 20 carries).
• Boise State held our RBs to 58 yards on 26 carries (2.23 per carry).
• Alabama, UNC, and Nebraska were better defenses last year than Boise is this year.

3. Beamer Ball needs some work. That was the single worst special teams performance I’ve seen from Virginia Tech since I started watching in 2003. A partial list of special teams stats from Mon night to prove this point is listed below:

• With 2 blockers not blocking anyone, Austin Pettis ran right past them untouched for one of the easiest punt blocks I’ve ever seen.
• Justin Myers kicked off out of bounds and only had one touchback.
• Chris Hazley missed a 50 yard field goal by about 25 yards.
• David Wilson returned 6 kickoffs for an average of 20.3 yards.
• Titus Young from Boise averaged 26 yards on 4 returns.
• Boise punted 3 times where Hosley had 0 return yards, Saunders punted 4 times and Boise was able to return it for an average of 11 yards per return including the final return setting them up at midfield for their final drive (did I mention the questionable non-call for the block in the back?).
• DJ Coles ran into the punter and then got a personal foul (or 2) on the same play!

4. The Defense as a whole isn’t "reloaded" yet. The secondary looked solid, but the linebackers were at best mediocre while the d-line was bad. A partial list of stats to prove this point is listed below:

• Cody Grimm’s (the Reaper’s!) replacement, Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, got beat on several big pass plays including the game winner.
• Bruce Taylor and Lyndell Wilson missed several tackles on Boise’s big run plays (including the 71 yard TD run where they both missed a tackle).
• For D-Line stats, refer back to Lesson Learned #1.
• One positive note, Eddie Whitley had a phenomenal debut. He led the team in tackles with 7 (6 solo) and in times said about him “Holy shit, he’s all over the field.” He also had 1 force fumble (which was really forced by a Boise O-lineman), and a QB hurry.

5. Warm up game, please. I am aware Beamer thinks it keeps everyone focused in the off season. But when something backfires this many times we should rethink the strategy. A partial list of historic scheduling stats to prove this point is listed below.

• Four of the past 7 years we have played the first (or in one case second) game against a pre-season top 5 team. In those 7 years we have lost 5 times (USC in ’04, LSU in ’07, ECU in ’08, Alabama in ’09, Boise in ’10).
• All but one of those games but one were close (LSU).
• USC, LSU, and Alabama all went on to win the national championship. Therefore, I’m going to Vegas to bet $5000 on Boise to win it all right now (12-1 odds in case you were wondering).
• USC, LSU, Alabama, and Boise St were all the more experienced team (how this is the case boggles my mind).

6. Tweak the offensive play calling. First a question, can you remember a single pass play that wasn’t a hitch or just a go route? The play calling was what I’ve come to expect at VT, meaning poor. A partial list of stats and opinions to prove this point is listed below:

• The running backs ran for 26 times for 58 yard. I do not blame Stiney for trying to get the ball to your best player in Ryan Wiliams, but maybe try other means of doing it such as screens and draws instead of handing off the ball and not blocking.
• Tyrod had one hell of a game throwing and in general. He threw some great deep balls that connected and just missed, but that’s about all he threw. Did we run a single WR screen or even a slant? Aside from a few hitches, I don’t remember any other short routes.
• The last two drives with the game on the line were abominations of play calls. The 2nd and 6 QB sneak with Tyrod was an interesting call because you could blow straight forward and a short and 3 or give Tyrod the pass run option. But a QB sweep is a risky call with little reward. Then on 3rd and 8 I have no problem throwing for the first down (and win). But a 30 yard bomb is a low probability way to do it. Either go for the 8 yard pass or run the ball to run 40 seconds off the clock (would have punted with about 1:25 left in that scenario). And on the final drive, 3 consecutive deep balls? Not that there was much the Hokies could do in that situation, but we had timeouts and only needed a field goal.

7. Virginia Tech was the better team. Not trying to discredit Boise State here, because they are a great, experienced, and well coached team. But Virginia Tech is more talented and just beat themselves. Plus, I wanted 1 positive lesson learned…. A partial list of stats (and opinions this time) to prove this point is listed below:

• Tyrod Taylor was the single best player on the field. Yes, Kellen Moore had a great game, but he had a lot of help (running game, defense, Pettis, ect). Tyrod carried the Hokies on his back and nearly snatched the victory away himself. His final stats: 15/22, 186 yards, 2 TD, 169.2 passer rating, 16 rushes for 73 yards, and he basically pulled a move out of the matrix to avoid a sack and get a first down.
• Despite the turnovers, 17-0 deficit, lack of a run game, no pressure on the QB, and everything already mentioned, the Hokies led the game late and had the game in its grasp.
• To put it better, despite playing the worst game in recent history, Virginia Tech still nearly beat a top 5 team that had everything go right.
• We look good enough to win the ACC and get into the Orange Bowl with just a few mitigations strategies.


Risk Waterfall:

Below is a risk waterfall if you are new to the game. Red is high risk, yellow is moderate risk, and green is no risk. We like green risk. The x axis is labeled as impact to the team if the risk occurs, and the y axis is the probability of the risk occurring. Lessons learned 1-5 are shown below.


Figure 1. VT Risk Waterfall

This means that the probability of our D-line being bad is highly likely and the impact of them having another performance like they did against Boise is great. I am specifically worried about Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Miami. The probability that our best run blockers graduated last season is highly likely, but the impact is moderate due to depth and Tyrod. Strong defensive lines such as UNC’s and Miami’s will present problems if this goes unmitigated. The probability that Beamer Ball needs work is uncertain because this simply could be an unlucky game, and the impact is moderate. The probability that the defense isn’t reloaded is even chance, but I do not believe we have enough evidence about the linebackers. This is obviously a high impact risk. And finally the need for the warm up game is remote because here are the Hokies opening day opponents for the next 5 seasons: Appalacian State, East Carolina, West Carolina, William and Mary, and Furman before possibly opening 2016 at home against Wisconsin (probably will be the 2nd game of that season). There is a chance VT opens the season at FedEx against Cincinati in 2012, but the game is not scheduled yet. The impact of scheduling is high risk.


Conclusion

In conclusion, Bud Foster has his work cut out for him this year. The most important lesson learned from the opener is that our D-line needs to be whipped into shape. Other problems that need to be mitigated are run blocking (and blocking in general), play calling, and reloading the rest of our defense. I propose the following mitigation steps:

Mitigation step down criteria:

1. Have Hopkins or Battle step up in run stopping. The competition should get the best out of both of them, but experience in general is needed. Find a DE to push Drager. While Drager had 3 tackles and a hurry, he is the weakest spot on our D-line. A backup needs to learn the system and push him to be better or simply replace him.

2. The left side of the line needs experience. The 2 deep at LT and sole LG simply need the playing time to get better. Competition between Becton and Lainer at LT should improve them both and hopefully have someone stand out.

3. Again, experience will help as there is so much youth in a lot of special teams positions, but punt blocking was a problem throughout all the fall scrimmages and practices and must get addressed immediately. Lack of discipline shown by some special teams players.

4. With two new LB and DL, they just need to get some reps. Not worried about reloading at LB as they are a more athletic and physical group than they are replacing. DL is another story as previously stated.

5. Scheduling mitigation already in place as stated.

6. Fire Stiney? At least add a few short passes…

7. Best mitigation strategy going forward this season: Play JMU next week and win by 40.


References

Tucker, Kyle. Boise Week. Vol 8: Thoughts (mine and theirs) on VT’s 33-30 loss… http://hamptonroads.com/blogs/kyle-tucker. 07 Sep 2010.
Cfbstats.com
Espn.com

Week 1 - Who are we playing?

http://www.espn.com/

It’s almost here. Can you feel it? College football is nearly upon us! So it’s time to start writing about the Hokies and stop making cutesy jingles about some nameless pitcher that won’t throw a pitch for more than a year…

Going into this game I have a legitimate question, who are we playing? I’m not trying to be funny or anything, because obviously we’re playing Boise State. I’m not the only one that’s noticed that just about every college football story to come out this summer has been about them right? Unless you count all the stories coming out about how crooked UNC is of course. But really, who are they? I mean, can you name a single player on Boise State’s roster that isn’t Kellen Moore? Did they really beat a decent team last year aside from Oregon or TCU? Can you name 2 teams from their conference? Who the hell are these guys? What we do know is that they are returning everyone except 1st round pick Kyle Wilson (who Ryan wanted me to point out that he is awesome for the Jets, which is good since they’ll need him to step up when Revis doesn’t play a game this year), this is the highest pre-season ranking they have ever had, and that this could be the first year a non BCS team makes the BCS championship.


I’m really stumped. How good is Boise State? They were good enough to go undefeated last season. But how many teams in the country go undefeated playing the same schedule? And by the same reasoning, how would they have done in any BCS conference? The only 2 games that give me any sort of insight to how good they were last year are Oregon at home and the bowl game against TCU. But even both of those have huge question marks. When they beat Oregon (and they did manhandle Oregon), Oregon was without what turned out to be their best player in LaMichael James. After taking over for Blount, James ran for 1500 yards! Even against Boise State, James only got two carries, but for 22 yards. That is 27 yards more than Blount got as he dragged Oregon down with him. Blount had 8 carries for -5 yards. The final score of the game: 19-8. But we got to take away this memorable moment:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_3299v-A1o&feature=related


The guy’s face after he gets hit still cracks me up. And I’m obviously a huge fan of the Titans signing Blount… Not like he would punch someone again in practice or at a game right?



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUG2SqGuutQ


Oh well… At least it was a teammate this time?


Um, getting back on track… I thought TCU was fantastic last season. I thought they would beat Boise State and do it handedly. But I think this needs to be said, “Damn you BCS”! Seriously, what kind of cop out game is TCU vs Boise State! We learned nothing about how good non-BCS teams are against the big boys! I know I’m not the only person that wanted to see how TCU and Boise State would handle the likes of Florida, Iowa, Ohio St, and even Cincinnati and Georgia Tech! I felt robbed by that game. And on top of that, it was soooo boring. And looking at the rest of their schedule, they even had a few scares at Tulsa and at Louisiana Tech.


But I will say that I did learn something from Boise State last season. Their defense is really good. When you think Boise State, you think trick plays, an ugly blue field, BCS busters, wedding proposals, and QBs airing it out and putting up a ton of points. In their biggest games last season, Boise State won by stifling the run game and holding teams to 10 points or less. And they did it playing straight up on offense without using many gadget plays. I’m not counting the games against the WAC because there might not even be a WAC after next season if that’s any indication of the quality of the other teams.


Neither TCU nor Oregon could run the ball on Boise State. Oregon actually couldn’t do anything at all. But TCU had a little bit of luck throwing on the Broncos, throwing for 274 yards, but they also got picked off 3 times. Although, I guess I should mention that Ryan Matthews from Fresno St ran for 234 yards against the Broncos, and Nevada combined for 200+ rush yards, so they aren’t completely a shut down defense. But I come back to my previous point, does that even tell us anything? Offensively, Boise State only scored 19 and 17 points against the only two real defenses it faced. In the Oregon game, yes they missed 2 field goals, but they only scored on drives starting around midfield and got 2 points from a Blount safety. Against TCU, 7 of their points were the result of an interception for a TD.


So what do I think will happen on Monday? I really have no idea… I would like to think we would run all over them with Williams and Evans. And I would also like to think our defense will reload like it has done over and over under Foster. My fear is that Boise State is superior on both lines. All-WAC Defensive End Ryan Winterswyck will be a handful, and that’s before we even know who we will start at LT! With Nick Becton’s turf toe, he has been getting limited snaps. Andrew Lainer has stepped up this fall, but I’m still worried about him matching up with Winterswyck. Currently Lainer is pegged to start, but both should see the field Monday. On the other side of the ball, I’m worried about our revamped D-line against a squad that only gave up 5 sacks all of last year. Let me repeat that, these guys gave up 5 sacks in 14 games, in a pass happy offense. I am not worried about the linebackers or secondary, but there is a glaring mismatch on the line. I think Graves and Friday play well, but converted TE Chris Drager and whoever ends up starting between Battle and Hopkins at DT could be in for a world of hurt. That said, I think our pass coverage is improved from last year, and our linebackers are more athletic. But this is a pretty big first step to test our “reloaded” defense.


Since I’m hopelessly lost by now, and you probably are too let’s get to the prediction. I think we have a few things working for us in this matchup. Bruce Taylor has made a huge step replacing an injured Barquell Rivers at inside linebacker, and in general VT defensemen named Bruce do exceptionally well. This is one of the biggest and most athletics teams Virginia Tech has ever produced (and one of the biggest and most athletic team Boise State has ever faced). People were breaking positional lifting records all over the place. This will essentially be a home game for the Hokies. Boise State is 1-3 against BCS opponents on the road. Boise State still is relatively untested. Our pass defense is better than last year. Bud Foster is still our defensive coordinator. Oh and Ryan Williams, Darren Evans, and Tyrod Taylor are in the backfield. I can see any kind of result in my crystal ball, but I’ve talked myself into the Hokies having a huge season, and it starts now!


34-20 Hokies! Ryan Williams runs wild, which will keep Evans off the field until mop up duty. Tyrod has an efficient game, throwing for 200 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs, and he breaks one long run. And the defense shuts down the Broncos in the 2nd half after 17 points early. Sure, why not?


Whatever happens, at least we’ll know which team is a legitimate contender.

UPDATE:

These uniforms were first leaked then made official. We're wearing all black uniforms against Boise State (who also will be rolling out in new Nike Pro Combat Unis).

http://www.hokiesports.com/football/recaps/20100901aaa.html

I do like the helmets, and I love the orange shoes. But I am not sold on everything in between. Maybe they'll grow on me like the last pro combat uni's but I'm not counting on it.

The Night Before Strasmas

Twas the night before Strasmas, and all through DC,
All the GMs were stirring, even George McPhee.
The banners were hung in the Verizon Center in dispare,
In hopes that non-Mystic attendance championships soon would hang there.

The fans wake from nightmares sweating in beds,
While visions of Kwame's are burned in their heads.
And my lady friend in her jersey, and I in my cap,
Finally believe that this city is done with this crap.

When Strasburg was picked, there arose such a clatter,
And maybe next year, the Nat's could pick up a batter.
What do you know, they got someone sharper,
Even Pujols is jealous of a kid named Bryce Harper.

Will the championships come, I say who knows?
But it can't get worse, we've had lower than lows.
Maybe we're due, it's been quite some time,
We've got all these young athletes going into their prime.

There is Strasburg, and Capps, and John Lannan,
There's Harper, and Dunn, and Ryan Zimmerman.
There's Ovechkin, and Backstrom, and Semin and all,
Even the lowly Wizards are getting John Wall.

There's new faces on the Skins that we'll surely like,
With McNabb and Trent Williams lead by Coach Mike.
Maybe they come out this season with a bang,
And the highlight of the year isn't Cooley's wang.

I know better than think that success is on its way,
There's a better chance to catch Santa on his sleigh.
But now there is hope as far as I can see,
And maybe just the traffic will suck in DC.

So before I'm busted, by my boss as he passes,
I wanted to say something to all of you asses,
'The District is coming, so the best of lucks.
Merry Strasmas to all, and Crosby still sucks.'

Coleman Collins remembers VT Tragedy

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/14975/coleman-collins-remembers-the-tragedy-of-virginia-tech?body=never%20forget

Hokies Offseason Blog - 2010 Predictions

VT Predictions:

The recruiting class coming in will go down as one of the bests, amazing job restocking both lines.

Defense will struggle early then steadily improve to another top 20 performance.
Offense will be top 20 too.

Ryan Williams will not be a Heisman hopeful with Evans back.

Taylor will double his TD passes from last season.

Steven Friday will lead the team in sacks, but John Graves will be our best lineman.

Jayron Hosley, Eddie Whitley, and Davon Morgan will step in nicely at field corner, safety, and rover, and the pass defense will be even better than last year and will be top 5 in the nation.

The run defense will be a little bit worse though. Losing 3 starters on the line, the Grimm Reaper, and Chancellor will hurt.

I will miss saying the Reaper…

I will use the hell out of “Sausage Fingers” to compensate.

We will stop the triple option damnit!

Boise State will get abused in RFK.

We will win the ACC and get back to the BCS.


https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcJ-hrQaJ22NqfCZhnIMFvS6Naiii3EjuKnyXOh4hmg5uZ91QYM5gtUWGQqHt8PpDlHRX467N1ZRk6rAj0IleQeUzz8xxOXBfyt8zhgd4CTfl3QUWb0E2yKoX37oF89zaLlxUl2_bSrL8K/s1600-r/2007ACC-Champs-VT.jpg

ACC Predictions:

Georgia Tech’s triple option won’t be as devastating with Paul Johnson recruited skill players.

UNC’s defense will be top 5 in the nation.

The Atlantic will be even worse this year than last, and the top 4 ACC teams will be in the Coastal.

Florida State will win the Atlantic and get its swagger back.
Miami will not.

Rebuilding will not be easy at UVA.

Maryland will be worse.

Duke will return to the basement.

The ACC will fail to fill all of its bowl placements again.

At least one of the following teams will lose to a non FBS school: Duke, Maryland, NCST, UVA, Wake.

Preseason Top 10:

1) Alabama – I’m not entirely convinced Alabama will be the best team next year with how the rest of the top 6 or 7 are looking, especially considering the huge losses on defense. But I’m giving credit where credit is due. You win the national championship, return all of your key players on offense, and recruit the way Alabama does you get the #1 spot.

2) Boise State – Finished the season in the top 5 (possibly should have finished #2), and they return an astonishing 23 of 24 starters only losing an NFL talent CB, Kyle Wilson. Admittedly a huge loss, but that is only a single starter you have to replace from a team that didn’t lose last year.

3) Ohio State – So maybe the Big Ten is better than I thought. Their work in the bowl games made a huge statement. And with Pryor (possibly) turning the corner and returning most of the defense and pretty much all of the offense, Ohio State is poised to make another run to get blown out in the championship game. Just kidding (I think). Solely placed them ahead of Oregon because they just beat them even though I think Oregon has a better year next year. Makes sense to me at least…

4) Oregon – Very young team returning all of their starters except 1 on offense and 2 on defense. LaMichael James could make a run at the Heisman if he keeps up the numbers he put up last year.

5) VT – Hokies had a good season offensively for the first time in years and return most of the key players who made that possible. The losses of Render, Wang, and Boone will hurt both the run game and pass game, but there are athletes everywhere. The defense will have some rebuilding to do and this will be one of our least experienced defensive lines in years, but Bud Foster is still the coach isn't he?

6) Iowa – Returning Stanzi and most of their stifling defense will keep Iowa in the top 10. They are losing a lot of players off their offensive line which is always a bad sign.

7) TCU – The Horned Frogs are only losing two players on offense (including their starting running back) and should be just as explosive on offense this season. But key losses on the defensive side, namely Jerry Hughes, will hurt.

8) Arkansas – Ryan Mallett is coming back for his senior season and will lead a strong offense for the Razorbacks. They are returning most of the starters on both sides of the ball. They could be a dark horse to win the SEC which would automatically qualify them for the national championship game (right?). With Florida losing their whole team and the weird nonsense with Meyer, someone will have to step up in the SEC.

9) Texas A&M – To be honest, I don’t like anyone in the Big 12. Texas and Oklahoma are losing a lot of key players, Nebraska is losing Suh which had more to do with their success than anyone on any team I’d wager, and Texas Tech lost their coach. But I do kind of like Texas A&M and their young offense led by QB Jerrod Johnson. And if they can bring in a defensive coordinator like the guy from Air Force they could be ready to compete this season.

10) Oklahoma – With all the injuries Oklahoma had this year on offense they did get a lot of playing time from their youngsters. This will translate to a good year next year and a possible return to the Big 12 Championship. Expect a big offensive year from Oklahoma and a lot of new faces on defense. The last pick was probably pretty stupid so I put Oklahoma in here to follow A&M up for when they flounder.

Heisman Hopefuls:

1) Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

2) Kellen More, QB, Boise State

3) LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

4) Ryan Mallet, QB, Arkansas

5) Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State

No I don’t think Ryan Williams will be able put up Heisman numbers when he is splitting carries with Evans, Oglesby, and Wilson (hopefully we can redshirt Wilson). Also, I’m sure some Big 12 QB will put up astronomical numbers and be hyped into the list. My guess is Landry Jones from Oklahoma or Jerrod Johnson from Texas A&M.

And just remember, predictions don't have to be right!