Week 5 - Rushed Again!

Sorry, this will be another abbreviated post. It’s the end of the fiscal year at work, and I was traveling over the weekend. Then I’m going to Blacksburg for a wedding this weekend. So, my excuse is, I’ve been busy. Therefore the 10 of you that still read this will be the ones that will suffer. So here’s a quick look at what I expect will happen Sat (back on real TV!):


1. Our defensive ends have turned the corner! It was such a huge relief to see how well Friday played against BC against a great lineman. But I was more impressed with Drager’s play. I have never given him any credit, but he really impressed me at BC. And unlike Friday, he’s shown he is a force against the run and pass. Even Gayle came in off the bench and played well! Combined the 3 had 7 tackles for a loss, 4 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. It was an absolutely huge day! And I expect more of the same against NC State. They are a pass first team that spreads you out, so the ends will have a green light all day. They have to watch out for the draw, but I expect Russell Wilson to be pressured non-stop, just like he was last year. See how the title of the blog worked two ways now? Clever aren't I?


2. Even though my boy, Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, had a great game against BC (aside from an early blown coverage), it could be another game where we play predominately nickel packages like we did against ECU. I expect Exum to get his 2nd start and Whitley to move back up to the Whip/Nickel slot. I really like our nickel personnel this year. That said, I’m happy GW had a good game at BC, because I did feel bad for him and how he performed in the first two games. Maybe it’ll give him the confidence boost he needs going forward.


3. Our defense is better than our buddy Al Groh’s. GT couldn’t much pressure on Russel Wilson and their secondary played a soft zone. I expect us to have more success on defense than GT did. We might have more trouble scoring though…


4. Our offense is still underperforming. I still like what Tyrod is doing. I like what David Wilson has done. Coale and Boykin have been good when they have enough time to run their routes. But the offensive line is still struggling. NC State’s defense is nowhere near as good as BC, but we also struggled against JMU… The play calling must be better, because 19 points might not win this game.


5. Ryan Williams might be back this week, but apparently he’s far from full strength. He hasn’t been full speed this week in practice or done full contact. Plus he hasn’t looked that good all season…

6. NCST opponents are 6-10 overall. VT opponents are 11-2 with both losses being to VT.


7. How is Russell Wilson still playing football!??!! Didn’t he get paid good money to play baseball? Same goes to Kyle Parker and that safety from GT (all of which the Rockies drafted last draft somehow).


All things considered, I expect us to win this game. We’re a 5 point favorite, and we killed them last season. We harassed Russell Wilson all day last year. What I saw last week against better offensive linemen has encouraged me to think we can hold NCST to under 20. This should be a favorable matchup. So I think VT wins 27-17. Of course, maybe our offense figures out how to run more screens (which we ran once last week for like 15 yards…), short passes, and effective play actions, and we put up a lot of points.


If I left you wanting more with my weak effort you can find more information about just how bad our red zone offense and play calling is; take a look at Kyle Tucker’s blog the last few articles.


http://hamptonroads.com/blogs/kyle-tucker


The good news is Stinespring has been hearing a ton of pressure from the media (including said Kyle Tucker), and maybe we can expect a little more inspired play-calling. But I’ve fallen for that trap before. Like 4 weeks ago…



In unrelated news, we just got a verbal from Dorian Finney-Smith, a 5 star SF from Portsmouth, VA for the 2011 basketball class. ESPN ranked him as the 15th best overall prospect of the class. We’re currently ranked 10th in recruiting for 2011. That’s 5 spots higher than we ended up in football recruiting for the years we got Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Williams. I told you we were a basketball school! We even have a Deronimo practice facility:

Week 4 - Blitzkrieg BC?

So last week was a hurried blog, and the next two will probably be hurried too. Unfortunately I don’t even know if I’ll be able to even watch the game vs BC because I’ll be home for my grandparents’ 90 birthdays. But that doesn’t mean I can’t tell you what to expect.

But first, where did that 2nd half on Sat come from!?!?! The first half was the same sad story we’ve seen all year: no blocking up front making Tyrod our only offense, poor tackling, and pretty poor coaching. But something happened in the 3rd quarter. We exploded! The offensive line played huge in the 2nd half! Wilson and Evans were getting huge holes to run through. The defense turned into one of the defenses of old and only gave up 83 yards after the half. The line got more pressure than they have all season. And Carmichael, after a pretty weak first half, came out to play! He made some great plays on the ball and showed some seriously athleticism on the run back. I didn’t even yell at Stinespring’s play-calling towards the end of the game. Much…

But playing against is a different team altogether. They are a very different team from our own team. They are pretty much the exact opposite of us. We’ll start with a list of strengths and weaknesses for each team:

BC Strengths/VT Weaknesses

Offensive Line – The best part of the BC offense is their offensive line. For one, they are huge! The biggest line we’ll face all season. The average size of their line: 6-6 313. And two, there is NFL talent all over it. I think it’s pretty safe to say that our offensive line is the weakest link in our offense (not counting play-calling?). This is a HUGE advantage for BC in this game.

Tackling – BC’s linebackers are great wrap-up tacklers. As a true freshman, Luke Kuechly, led the team, and nearly the nation, in tackling. Through 2 games, he’s already recorded 21 tackles. And Mark Herzlich is back from missing all last season to cancer. And he looks like he hasn’t really missed a step. Their linebacking core tackles everything! For Virginia Tech, tackling hasn’t really been a strength this season… Two of our top 3 tacklers are defensive backs. Only Bruce Taylor has shown the ability to make consistent tackles from the line backer position, but even he has missed some key tackles. Plus he has shown a great ability to tackle people out of bounds… Our tackling got better when we went into a nickel package for the ECU game. How does that make sense?

Coaching – Before I get in trouble I don’t think all of VT’s coaching has been a problem this season. But I could argue that something is off with the coaching staff. They haven’t been too successful motivating players (we’re giving up tons of points early in games off of just stupid mistakes), the play calling I might have mentioned a few times in these few blogs, and we always seem to struggle in the role of favorite. BC on the other hand has had coach after coach get promotions to NFL positions, they always exceed expectations and compete in the Atlantic, and they do more with less talent than most teams in the country.

VT Strengths/BC Weaknesses

Skill Position Players – Our best offensive player is Tyrod Taylor, but he is also surrounded by weapons. He has 3 great running backs (I would even argue 4) and a now experienced and athletic receiving core. BC doesn’t even know who they’ll start at QB. Odds are that it will be Shinskie, but he’s been far from impressive. Anyone remember how he did against the Hokies last season? He was 1/12 for 4 yards and 1 interceptions. Montel Harris is their only offensive weapon, but he may only the product of a good o-line.

Athleticism – This may just be an aside of the bullet before. But position by position, Virginia Tech is more athletic and faster all the way down the list.

Big Game Experience – This is Boston College’s first true test after playing Kent St and Weber St. And every game is a test for the Hokies at this point! That experience should hopefully be important in this matchup.

Some other things to note for this game:

David Wilson broke the news that Ryan Williams will be sitting this game out. This probably means a 50/50 time share between Evans and Wilson. And by the way, I was very impressed with Wilson. He looks like the most explosive, fastest, and even hardest to tackle of the 3. And he hasn’t fumbled yet, which is nice… I say feed him the ball!

Like I said above, VT mostly played nickel last game with Exum getting his first ever start at FS. He had a great game there (as did Chris Fuller at corner stepping in for the mysteriously suspended Hosley). That meant Jeron GW didn’t see much action against ECU, and we looked a lot better. I feel bad for continuously calling this kid out, but he needs to improve. BC is a run first team, so we’ll see how the coaches decide to play it with Whitley at WHIP or Jeron there.
Virginia Tech has owned BC the last two meetings, but the defense in those two games was much better…

So this game will answer the age old question: what wins college football games? I’ve been thinking about this for a while now. Really what is the recipe for winning in college? Is it a single standout skill position player that carries a team solely on his back like Michael Vick, a team speed/team athleticism approach that all the Florida teams seem to employ, or is it won in the trenches with dominating lines that make other positions look better like Alabama and Iowa last season? The trend seems to be sliding to winning in the trenches. That’s the main reason we lost to Boise State, although there were tons of reasons. So this will be a true test of this question. Team Speed vs Team Trenches. But you know what the Germans said when the French built up their trenches in the Maginot Line? Blitzkrieg!



Last season’s performance has me leaning for a blowout, but both lines were much better last season. Whoever plays QB for BC will have more time than last year, and the holes will be bigger. Plus, we lost to JMU this season... I think this will be another nail biter for the Hokies, where Harris breaks a few long runs, and Tyrod and Wilson have a few big plays of their own.

Prediction: 31-23 Hokies. I expect a lot of Tyrod scrambling, Wilson big runs, and field goals in general. Probably another game where we’re behind at halftime. And Doug Flutie better not be covering the game again! Or dropping in for a half hour conversation! At least Matt Ryan has a game this week so we don’t have to suffer through that again…

Week 3 - I've got nothing...

So I tried starting several different versions of a blog this week, but I just can't get into it... And you should understand why! But to prove that I did indeed think about it, here's a taste of some of my ideas:

Idea 1: Maybe We're the Other Team in Football Movies

So far we've been the big bad favorite in two games to scrappy underdogs/Cinderella types. Twenty years from now can't you see a movie about how Boise State overcame adversity to win the national championship beating the big boys clubs and facing adversity the whole way through? What about JMU? Coming off a dissappointing season, they pull a huge upset on the team that wouldn't even consider any of the Dukes for a scholarship. Then they coast all the way to the FCS Championship beating everyone and becoming men.

So what is typical of the "other team" in these type of underdog football movies? 1) They're the favorites because they have bigger and better athletes. 2) They're dirty. 3) They can't tackle. 4) Their defense is considered one of the best the good guys have seen in the big scenes leading up to the game, but turns out it's pretty bad.

Which of these do we not meet? I mean I could even give out awards named after other football movie bad guys such as the Warden Hazen award for dirtiest play to DJ Coles for running into the punter, then getting TWO personal fouls on the SAME PLAY!


bleacherreport

And if you’re unaware, Warden Hazen was the warden in The Longest Yard and led the team of guards to one of the dirtiest games in any sports movie since the Nazis in Victory. I came up with a few others, but like I said I’m unmotivated this week.

Idea 2: We’re a Basketball School now!

So this is the first time I can remember, and I don’t care to look it up, that the basketball team could end up higher than the football team in rankings. So that makes us a baskeball school right? Move over Duke and your 1-1 football record, just mocking us with your multi-school athletes! We’re coming in basketball with all of our starters, and 90% of our scoring returning. Plus, SF Jarrell Eddie is getting talk of possibly being the Freshman of the Year in the ACC. He’s a scoring machine and can knock down open 3’s (which is something we lacked last season). I’d go on to say how our recruiting has been great the last 2 years, and how Florida transfer, Allan Chaney, will help us inside. But again, I’ve already written more than I planned this week.

Oh and in a multiple sport, kick you while your down, type deal: J.T. Thompson was injured in a pickup game and is out for the season. Yep…

Idea 3: I’m a Better Fan Now

The loss to JMU put my fanship in perspective and revealed that I shouldn’t put so much thought and energy into college football and sports in general. I’ll be a more relaxed and better fan now.

Yeah right…

Week 2 - Risk Management

To avoid ranting and complaining about things like questionable calls and non-calls on Boise’s winning drive probably costing us up to 50 yards, I’ve decided to get technical this week. I'm going to be all professional. Here is my technical report of lessons learned and potential mitigations using the risk waterfall.

A football team is similar to a system. One could argue that it is a system of systems. Therefore I will treat the problem as seen vs Boise State as a systems engineering problem. A system is only a great as its weakest part. Therefore I have broken down the Virginia Tech Football System as a whole to find the weakest parts. From these parts I have pulled lessons learned and have provided mitigations in the conclusion of this report to raise the performance of the system as a whole.


Lessons Learned

1. The D-Line is weak. The stats listed below might not do this point justice. Watching the game you could just tell the Hokies were getting pushed around up front. A partial list of defensive stats to prove this point is listed below:

• Only Steven Friday got to the QB, recording our single sack.
• Including that sack, the Hokies recorded just 3 tackles for a loss (Friday, Graves , and Carmichael).
• The D-Line combined for just 10 tackles (6 solo, 4 assisted).
• The D-Line only hurried Kellen Moore twice.
• The Broncos averaged 7 yards per carry.

2. Last season’s best run blockers graduated. With the graduation of Sergio Render and Ed Wang, our rushing attack has taken a step backwards. A partial list of historic and current stats to prove this point is listed below:

• Ryan Williams rushed 21 times for 44 yards (2.1 per carry) and never had an opportunity to get in the open field.
• The Hokies combined for 44 rushes for 128 yards (2.9 per carry).
• 73 of those 128 yards came from Tyrod Taylor scrambling for his life.
• Where the Hokies had 10 tackles total from its D-Line, the Broncos had 11 tackles for a loss (3 sacks).
• Last season we never got held to less than 90 rushing yards from running backs (Alabama held the Hokeis to 90 but on just 20 carries).
• Boise State held our RBs to 58 yards on 26 carries (2.23 per carry).
• Alabama, UNC, and Nebraska were better defenses last year than Boise is this year.

3. Beamer Ball needs some work. That was the single worst special teams performance I’ve seen from Virginia Tech since I started watching in 2003. A partial list of special teams stats from Mon night to prove this point is listed below:

• With 2 blockers not blocking anyone, Austin Pettis ran right past them untouched for one of the easiest punt blocks I’ve ever seen.
• Justin Myers kicked off out of bounds and only had one touchback.
• Chris Hazley missed a 50 yard field goal by about 25 yards.
• David Wilson returned 6 kickoffs for an average of 20.3 yards.
• Titus Young from Boise averaged 26 yards on 4 returns.
• Boise punted 3 times where Hosley had 0 return yards, Saunders punted 4 times and Boise was able to return it for an average of 11 yards per return including the final return setting them up at midfield for their final drive (did I mention the questionable non-call for the block in the back?).
• DJ Coles ran into the punter and then got a personal foul (or 2) on the same play!

4. The Defense as a whole isn’t "reloaded" yet. The secondary looked solid, but the linebackers were at best mediocre while the d-line was bad. A partial list of stats to prove this point is listed below:

• Cody Grimm’s (the Reaper’s!) replacement, Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, got beat on several big pass plays including the game winner.
• Bruce Taylor and Lyndell Wilson missed several tackles on Boise’s big run plays (including the 71 yard TD run where they both missed a tackle).
• For D-Line stats, refer back to Lesson Learned #1.
• One positive note, Eddie Whitley had a phenomenal debut. He led the team in tackles with 7 (6 solo) and in times said about him “Holy shit, he’s all over the field.” He also had 1 force fumble (which was really forced by a Boise O-lineman), and a QB hurry.

5. Warm up game, please. I am aware Beamer thinks it keeps everyone focused in the off season. But when something backfires this many times we should rethink the strategy. A partial list of historic scheduling stats to prove this point is listed below.

• Four of the past 7 years we have played the first (or in one case second) game against a pre-season top 5 team. In those 7 years we have lost 5 times (USC in ’04, LSU in ’07, ECU in ’08, Alabama in ’09, Boise in ’10).
• All but one of those games but one were close (LSU).
• USC, LSU, and Alabama all went on to win the national championship. Therefore, I’m going to Vegas to bet $5000 on Boise to win it all right now (12-1 odds in case you were wondering).
• USC, LSU, Alabama, and Boise St were all the more experienced team (how this is the case boggles my mind).

6. Tweak the offensive play calling. First a question, can you remember a single pass play that wasn’t a hitch or just a go route? The play calling was what I’ve come to expect at VT, meaning poor. A partial list of stats and opinions to prove this point is listed below:

• The running backs ran for 26 times for 58 yard. I do not blame Stiney for trying to get the ball to your best player in Ryan Wiliams, but maybe try other means of doing it such as screens and draws instead of handing off the ball and not blocking.
• Tyrod had one hell of a game throwing and in general. He threw some great deep balls that connected and just missed, but that’s about all he threw. Did we run a single WR screen or even a slant? Aside from a few hitches, I don’t remember any other short routes.
• The last two drives with the game on the line were abominations of play calls. The 2nd and 6 QB sneak with Tyrod was an interesting call because you could blow straight forward and a short and 3 or give Tyrod the pass run option. But a QB sweep is a risky call with little reward. Then on 3rd and 8 I have no problem throwing for the first down (and win). But a 30 yard bomb is a low probability way to do it. Either go for the 8 yard pass or run the ball to run 40 seconds off the clock (would have punted with about 1:25 left in that scenario). And on the final drive, 3 consecutive deep balls? Not that there was much the Hokies could do in that situation, but we had timeouts and only needed a field goal.

7. Virginia Tech was the better team. Not trying to discredit Boise State here, because they are a great, experienced, and well coached team. But Virginia Tech is more talented and just beat themselves. Plus, I wanted 1 positive lesson learned…. A partial list of stats (and opinions this time) to prove this point is listed below:

• Tyrod Taylor was the single best player on the field. Yes, Kellen Moore had a great game, but he had a lot of help (running game, defense, Pettis, ect). Tyrod carried the Hokies on his back and nearly snatched the victory away himself. His final stats: 15/22, 186 yards, 2 TD, 169.2 passer rating, 16 rushes for 73 yards, and he basically pulled a move out of the matrix to avoid a sack and get a first down.
• Despite the turnovers, 17-0 deficit, lack of a run game, no pressure on the QB, and everything already mentioned, the Hokies led the game late and had the game in its grasp.
• To put it better, despite playing the worst game in recent history, Virginia Tech still nearly beat a top 5 team that had everything go right.
• We look good enough to win the ACC and get into the Orange Bowl with just a few mitigations strategies.


Risk Waterfall:

Below is a risk waterfall if you are new to the game. Red is high risk, yellow is moderate risk, and green is no risk. We like green risk. The x axis is labeled as impact to the team if the risk occurs, and the y axis is the probability of the risk occurring. Lessons learned 1-5 are shown below.


Figure 1. VT Risk Waterfall

This means that the probability of our D-line being bad is highly likely and the impact of them having another performance like they did against Boise is great. I am specifically worried about Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Miami. The probability that our best run blockers graduated last season is highly likely, but the impact is moderate due to depth and Tyrod. Strong defensive lines such as UNC’s and Miami’s will present problems if this goes unmitigated. The probability that Beamer Ball needs work is uncertain because this simply could be an unlucky game, and the impact is moderate. The probability that the defense isn’t reloaded is even chance, but I do not believe we have enough evidence about the linebackers. This is obviously a high impact risk. And finally the need for the warm up game is remote because here are the Hokies opening day opponents for the next 5 seasons: Appalacian State, East Carolina, West Carolina, William and Mary, and Furman before possibly opening 2016 at home against Wisconsin (probably will be the 2nd game of that season). There is a chance VT opens the season at FedEx against Cincinati in 2012, but the game is not scheduled yet. The impact of scheduling is high risk.


Conclusion

In conclusion, Bud Foster has his work cut out for him this year. The most important lesson learned from the opener is that our D-line needs to be whipped into shape. Other problems that need to be mitigated are run blocking (and blocking in general), play calling, and reloading the rest of our defense. I propose the following mitigation steps:

Mitigation step down criteria:

1. Have Hopkins or Battle step up in run stopping. The competition should get the best out of both of them, but experience in general is needed. Find a DE to push Drager. While Drager had 3 tackles and a hurry, he is the weakest spot on our D-line. A backup needs to learn the system and push him to be better or simply replace him.

2. The left side of the line needs experience. The 2 deep at LT and sole LG simply need the playing time to get better. Competition between Becton and Lainer at LT should improve them both and hopefully have someone stand out.

3. Again, experience will help as there is so much youth in a lot of special teams positions, but punt blocking was a problem throughout all the fall scrimmages and practices and must get addressed immediately. Lack of discipline shown by some special teams players.

4. With two new LB and DL, they just need to get some reps. Not worried about reloading at LB as they are a more athletic and physical group than they are replacing. DL is another story as previously stated.

5. Scheduling mitigation already in place as stated.

6. Fire Stiney? At least add a few short passes…

7. Best mitigation strategy going forward this season: Play JMU next week and win by 40.


References

Tucker, Kyle. Boise Week. Vol 8: Thoughts (mine and theirs) on VT’s 33-30 loss… http://hamptonroads.com/blogs/kyle-tucker. 07 Sep 2010.
Cfbstats.com
Espn.com